Bilbray wins 49.5 - 45.2.
But John Podhoretz asks the right
question, "whether Republicans are going to get overexcited by the results too, and overestimate the meaning of this victory — which may simply be a very mild indicator that the public is not, in fact, in a revolutionary mood."
I'm not sure how much the CA-50th will tell us about the country at large, but I do think that the momentum that Democrats were hoping to create with a Busby win or a slight Busby loss has been extinguished.
Busby's campaign, in large part, was fueled by progressive bloggers. The comments from
this thread on Kos are indicative of what the left was thinking. Busby relied on the bloggers for support via contributions as well as phone banking and get out the vote operations.
Here's how
MSNBC reported the 50th, prior to the election. The article is titled, for effect, "Electoral earthquake could begin in California":
The theory is if Democrat Busby can win today's election, Democrats will win a lot of other House races in Republican districts in November — giving them the net gain of 15 seats they need to control the House.
"One of the most unexpectedly competitive races in congressional history," Bill Burton, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, called the Busby-Bilbray race.
Busby "has shown that a strong 'change' message can make even a former member of Congress vulnerable in a safe Republican district," Burton said.
Busby "can more or less competently offer herself as a vehicle for protest," said Gary Jacobson, professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, and an expert on congressional elections. "She's not particularly dynamic or charismatic, but maybe that's not what people are looking for."
But how good a job did Busby actually do? As of this post, with about 90% of precincts reporting, Busby had 51,202 votes. In April, during the first special election, Busby had
56,147 votes. When all the votes are counted from yesterday, she'll either have less or about the same as she garnered in April. That's not what anyone expected based on the media hype.
I don't think there's a word for what happened yesterday...maybe a momentum cycle is the way to describe it. This is how I think the Busby story will be written: The DCCC touted her as a real competitor to the GOP. Liberal bloggers, in search of a white knight, believed the DCCC and put their considerable weight behind her and thrust Busby into the national spotlight. The MSM observes the blogger wave and takes notice. Democrat leaning polling firm Lake Research puts out a poll that has Busby up by
7%. More donations pour in on this news. The MSM reports this new surge. People on both sides really start to believe that Busby might pull it out.
But the only problem - like with Howard Dean in 2004 - the truth comes out on Election Day.
With all this, John's question from The Corner still remains unanswered. I do think the 50th shows that the House races will focus more on local races than Democratic leadership was hoping. I also don't think Busby was that strong a candidate for the district she was running in. Her goof about illegal immigrants voting aside, she did a lot of odd things. One of the ads she ran and paid for actually told voters to vote for the ultra conservative on immigration in the race, on the hope it would takes votes away from Bilbray. Busby also spent considerable ad space touting her approval of John McCain's immigration plan. In the end, McCain's last minute cancellation was probably more to take ammo from Busby than it was a slap to Bilbray.
I think the most important lesson to take from the 50th quite possibly could be the worst news for Democrats - Republicans like a winner.
Bilbray was in two races yesterday. He won against Busby, but he also overwhelmingly won the nod to be on the ballot in November. All the talk that Bilbray wasn't conservative enough or not tough enough on illegal immigration (yes, Bilbray, contrary to MSM reports, is somewhere between McCain and the Minuteman) evaporated. Republicans spoke yesterday in the 50th and they picked the guy they thought could win in November. This raises some interesting questions on the McCain immigration plan. House Republicans might not need to fear a slightly stronger version of the McCain plan getting passed by the House.
And I do think John's observation should serve as a warning to other Republicans as there are better Democrats than Busby running in competitive districts around the country.
