Maryland still has 200,000 absentee ballots that haven't been counted. Two sources close to the Steele campaign say they think he can win those by 50,000. So as the remaining precincts report, that's the number to watch. If the margin grows wider than that, it's likely - although not certain - that Steele will concede.

UPDATE: Steele for Maryland finance chairman Alan Fabian just told the crowd at Steele HQ that the race would not be decided tonight, and that everyone should go home for now. Overheard: See you at the next victory party.