A striking element of what's going on in the 2006 election cycle is that national polling on Democratic and Republican fortunes may not be conveying the important context of where Dems have gained momentum. A recent Pew Research Center poll supplies that context by breaking out trends in partisanship over the past few years according to the familiar Red State/Blue State dynamic. It turns out that you can see a modest improvement in Democratic voter preference over the past couple of cycles, but it is pretty much limited to the Blue States. The Red States haven't budged much in party loyalty, and swing states are locked up neck-and-neck — slightly worse, actually than was true in 2000, before the 9/11-driven shift towards the GOP's territory of defense and security issues.

You can also see this effect in the various 2006 races. While there are plenty of much-watched, highly competitive races for House and Senate, reflect on how little people are talking about the massive leads of Democrats retaking governor's mansions in New York and Massachusetts. We're talking a 50-point Elliot Spitzer lead. Deval Patrick's average lead over Kerry Healey in Massachusetts is 32 points. Blue States are shading into navy, yes, but that doesn't mean it's curtains for the GOP, not at all.