Rasmussen is wary on polling for the Republican Primary, as it is an open primary that allows independents to vote, but does note that Chafee's primary opponent Steve Laffey polls better with Republicans (61%) than does Chafee (52%), and that Chafee is viewed favorably overall by only 46% of the Republicans.

Rasmussen goes on to report that 58% of all Rhode Islander likely voters view Chafee favorably. When compared to the 41% of the votes he would get in a race against Whitehouse, it suggests that many Rhode Islander's like Chafee personally but just don't think he's a good enough Senator to re-elect.

In a head-to-head match-up, Laffey (29%) still trails Whitehouse (57%) by a large margin. Laffey's numbers are in large part due to the attacks on him (much of which is intentionally false and misleading) launched first by the National Republican Senatorial Committee starting last fall and now Chafee, and the absolute lack of fairness on the part of the Providence Journal, which could correct much of the NRSC's and Chafee's mischaracterization of Laffey and his record but have chosen not to.

It's still relatively early in the game, however, for the fall elections. Chafee and Whitehouse's political positions are eerily similar. Whitehouse also has the advantage of having a friendly Providence Journal (the only major paper in the state) and of having not a single campaign ad launched against him. Whitehouse's views and record should be like fish in a barrel for Laffey and Republicans in a general election. And Whitehouse, although he was elected Attorney General, was not as successful in his other attempts at statewide offices, suggesting that Rhode Islanders haven't been as sold on him in the past as his present numbers now seem to indicate. Sheldon Whitehouse also has several issues left over from his term as Attorney General that could come back to haunt him come General Election time.

Lincoln Chafee is a known commodity to statewide Rhode Island voters. Sheldon Whitehouse is a similarly known commodity. Steve Laffey isn't. And what people outside of the city of Cranston know about Laffey has been tainted by misleading ads by Republicans. If Laffey can can get his real record and positions out (contrasting them with both Chafee's and Whitehouse's), and if he can get by Chafee's imported Democrat and independent voters in the primary, this November race will tighten alot. Also, don't underestimate Rhode Island's somewhat odd (considering the political demographics of the state) habit of having one Democratic Senator (currently Jack Reed) and one Republican Senator since 1976.

If Laffey does win the primary, which is entirely possible, he will have two foes other than Whitehouse to worry about. The first is the NRSC itself which has little credibility now in Rhode Island and whose ads against Laffey will be used by the Whitehouse campaign. The second is the Providence Journal which will be as in bed with Whitehouse then as it is in bed with Chafee now.

An aside and a plea: what Rhode Island really needs now for fair elections is another legitimate state-wide newspaper outlet like the Washington Examiner to publish on a daily basis and compete against the Providence Journal. Right now the Journal has no incentive to be fair and honest in its reporting because it is the only game in town. And if the Journal doesn't like you, watch out. Such a scenario with another news outlet is not going to happen in time to help a candidate like Laffey this time around, but it would be nice to see it in time for the 2008 elections.